Once it's ready, please submit it for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!
This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.
This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.
This year again, Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel of Vox's Future Perfect have made a number of predictions with probability estimates virtuously attached. Their set of 2021 forecasts is high-profile modelling of excellent epistemic norms.
We've decided to again take their prediction list, and make it into a Metaculus series. The questions are in the process of being written in a form suitable for Metaculus, check this page again for an updated list.
If you're landing here from the Vox article, welcome to Metaculus! Feel free to browse the below questions and predict anonymously, but for more fun and to track your predictions, please sign up.
Here are the questions (links to the Metaculus questions to be added as they are written):
Trump will uneventfully leave office on January 20
At least one US state will have an abortion ban currently blocked by the courts go into effect
Trump approval rating by year’s end will be in the 40 to 45 percent range
The US unemployment rate will stay above 5 percent through November
US poverty will be higher in late 2021 than it was in late 2020
The median home price in the Bay Area will fall 5 percent or more
100 million Americans will be vaccinated, at least partially, against the coronavirus by end of April
Restaurant reservations and consumer spending outside the home back to normal by the end of year
A deadly new zoonotic outbreak will emerge
The US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open
The Hadi government and Houthi rebels in Yemen reach a peace agreement
LDP continues to govern Japan
CDU continues to govern Germany
India’s economy will grow in quarters 1-3 of 2021 after shrinking briefly in 2020
At least three new basic income pilots will be launched
No more countries will leave the EU
An AI breakthrough will lead to a game-changing advance in biology
Global carbon emissions will increase
Plant-based meat market share will increase by at least 20 percent
A post on the 2020 version of the series can be found here, with the questions available here.
Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.